NORTH GOWER — Beef farmer John Newman say he gets asked the same question everywhere he goes.

"When people stop me on the street the first thing they want to know is when the (U.S.) border will open for live cattle over 30 months and for breeding stock."

Newman, a member of the Ontario Cattlemen’s Association executive, says right now the decision will soon be on the desk of U.S. president George Bush. If Bush plays by the rules and you include a miracle of God that prevents any delay, the earliest date for an open border is about November 1 of this year.

But Newman has seen too many twists in the road. He doesn’t hold out hope for an open border before Christmas in spite of the optimism coming from the Federal Minister of Agriculture Chuck Strahl, who was touring eastern Ontario in July.

A Peterborough-area dairy farmer at a Frankford gathering brought up the border question, while lamenting: "The borders (to U.S.) have basically been closed since May 2003 and have never been re-opened. We were basically put out of business; we had to find some domestic market...insignificant to what we had outside the country."

Strahl suggested an open border before 2008. "I believe this is going to happen later on this year," he told the crowd.

The last two attempts by the U.S. government to open its own border to specific Canadian cattle were blocked by a group of U.S. protectionist beef farmers. R-Calf successfully secured a court injunction to shut out Canadian cattle. After the second injunction, an emergency hearing was held and the injunction was lifted the next day. That was mid-July 2005, allowing into the United States bone-in beef and cattle under 30 months for feeding or slaughter.

The latest proposal, Rule 2, will allow all cattle born after 1999 into the United States and all boxed beef, regardless of age. The 60-day comment period on the new rule, expired in March. There were 400 comments that are now being analyzed and answered. That’s about 3,000 fewer comments than with the previous rule.

While the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) doesn’t want to poke slowly in responding to comments, it also doesn’t want to overlook any argument that will once again delay opening the border. "They don’t really want to give R-Calf that bullet for a lawsuit," said Canadian Cattlemen’s Association director of government and international relations, John Masswohl. He added that he wouldn’t want to predict when the border will open. "Every time you think you’ve gotten it figured out, there’s a curve ball."

Rule 2 is expected to move anytime now from the USDA to the White House, where the president has 90 days to approve it. Rule 2 would open the border 60 days after approval.

Meantime, R-Calf is pressuring to keep the border closed, arguing that when the border opens a wall of Canadian cattle with flood into the United States. Impossible, says Newman. Increased slaughter capacity in Canada solved that possible crisis, he said.