The way some farmers are spending their cash to replace tired equipment and buy land you wouldn’t think the economy was in crisis. In fact, it seems that an old saying is true: in a downturn, agriculture gets hit last, if at all.

Former OMAFRA economist Colin Reesor said we can expect a weak economy for a year or more. "It could take until 2010 to get through all this," he said.

As it stands, the dairy and feathers supply management farmers will be insulated from most of the mess, Reesor said, noting that their main concern will be controlling input costs. "Crop farmers are now spending the money they’ve made and it’s been a good year for most. They’ve deferred purchasing until now and they have a lot of equipment to replace. Crop farmers are going into 2009 in good cash shape."

But next year "they can expect lower input prices and higher expenses. It’s a good year to get multiple quotes on fertilizer."

"The farm credit situation is much better than it has been in a very long time," said risk manager Steve Barnes of FC Stone, based in Colorado. Most farmers are insulated from the stock market crash, as they own few stocks and pump their cash into capital and equipment, he said. He also doesn’t see the financial situation getting any worse. He said he has read comparisons to the 1930s depression but "I’m not ready to jump on that bandwagon. We haven’t seen the absolute panic and people jumping out of windows. I think we’ve weathered the storm."

How bad is the economic crisis? "It’s deep and it’s global," says agricultural risk management advisor Heather Moffatt, of Agricultural Marketing First Ltd., based in Bayfield, north of London. However, she also believes the worst of the crash in the stock market is behind us and it could take at least one year or more before growth returns. "We’ll see things stabilize now," Moffatt said. "I don’t see a lot of growth. Already, a lot of the panic has gone out of the market. Have we hit bottom? I’d like to think so."

As it stands, agricultural commodities are tied to the price of oil, she said. Oil prices now are expected to be flat until a seasonal price spike in February, she said.

Assessing agriculture in the United States, farmers should not expect a return to the tough times of the 1980s, says two Purdue University agricultural economists Mike Boehlje and Chris Hurt. The economists said the agriculture industry is in a much stronger financial position today. Present economic fundamentals also are more favorable, indicating farmers are likely to withstand the economic downturn, they said.

"We’re in a much different situation today than we were in the 1970s boom and then massive bust in the 1980s," Hurt said. "One difference is interest rates are much lower this time. In the ’70s we had moderate interest rates, but then we saw them move up in the ’80s, with the prime rate above 20 percent as we started to fight inflation. So we ended up in the ’70s with a lot of debt."

However, if you’re a glass is half-empty kind of guy, then you’ll take to heart the conclusions of Connecticut-based Peter Schiff, a 43-year-old financial advisor, given the nickname Dr. Doom by the news media. Dr. Doom says the continent is heading into its first depression since the 1930s and argues the stock market is still too expensive and stock prices won’t be any higher in five years from now.

A lot of notice has been taken of Schiff since he predicted the current collapse and called the U.S. economy a house of cards, having gone from being the world’s largest creditor to the world’s largest debtor in a short period of time.

Schiff says the first $700-billion bailout of the economy will only prolong the pain. "Everything the government is doing right now is deigned to prevent the market from administering its tough medicine," Schiff told The National Post. " All of the bailouts are a bad ideas. The government is trying to put more cash out there so Americans can keep spending. We don’t need more loans for consumers. We need less. Consumers should not be borrowing. They should be doing the opposite. We’re trying to encourage more of the behaviour that’s behind the problem."