OTTAWA — Dairy and poultry farmers fear that the upcoming World Trade Organization (WTO) talks will strike a fatal blow to their protected domestic markets.

Dairy farmers fear losing up to 10 per cent of their market over the next 10 years, while poultry farmers fear being wiped out.

The irony of the December talks in Hong Kong is that the more successful they are for nations in general, the more devastating will be their effects to farmers. Canadian dairy and poultry farmers could face the slow dismantling of the supply management system, which would allow for a dramatic increase in foreign competition and an avalanche of imported agricultural products.

If the United States gets only a part of what it wants, Canada’s farmers will lose market share. The United States has proposed a 60 per cent decrease in subsidies and a 54 per cent cut in tariffs for developed countries.

The Dairy Farmers of Ontario say that even with a tariff cap of 100 per cent farmers would lose 10 per cent of market share and $20 per hectolitre.

Judy Simmons, manager of international trade policy for the Canadian Egg Marketing Agency, says the current high tariff level of 163.5 per cent on eggs has to be maintained or the U.S., which can produce eggs more cheaply because of government support programs, will take over the Canadian market.

Historically, the aim of the WTO, which includes 148 nations, is to reduce subsidies and the pessimists have been saying for 20 years that supply management has only 10 to 15 more years of life.

About 10 years ago, "all Canadian marketing boards gave up five per cent of their markets without tariffs but the U.S. and Europeans broke the spirit of the agreement through manipulation and hardly gave up anything," Simmons said.

The U.S. gained access to Canada for about 21-million dozen eggs but the volume has since doubled. Another drop in tariffs and poultry farmers will feel the pain. And this time around, the U.S. is not looking for access into developing markets, says Simmons. The money is in the markets of the developed country. And Canada is a target.

Meantime, agriculture's political leader has not been instilling confidence in farmers. Questioned at the annual meeting of the National Farmers Union (NFU) in Ottawa last month Agriculture Minister Andy Mitchell told delegates he is clear about defending supply management. But he then added: "There are political events that are occurring that could seriously impact our efforts."

After asking Mitchell for his guarantee in protecting supply management and not getting it, Alberta dairy farmer Jan Slomp quipped: "I was very disappointed in our minister of agriculture creating a tremendous loop-hole of excuses."

An Agricultural Trade Canada report adds to farmers' fears. Although it doesn't specify numbers, it says that Canada seeks the elimination of all export subsidies and a substantial reduction of all domestic support. Contrast that with the European Union, which wants to support 134 tariff lines and is sending representatives to watch over the negotiating team to ensure they don't give away the store. Any deal the U.S. passes has to be approved by Congress. Mitchell's parliamentary secretary Wayne Easter noted that "If we get the best solution on the table - and it's hard to determine the best solution - the return to farmers will not change the farm income one iota."

The World Trade Organization was established in 1995 to enhance the freedom of trade among member countries. The aim is to reduce trade barriers on a plethora of goods and services. Agriculture will be a major issue at the Hong Kong meeting.

On November 22, supply management forces got some encouragement. The House of Commons voted unanimously on a Bloc motion that negotiators ensure "no reduction in over quota tariffs and no increase in tariff quotas."