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Best case and worst case for dairy farmers at WTO

Supply management will likely end up giving up a little something if the World Trade Organization talks reach an agreement, said Bruce Saunders, chairman of the Dairy Farmers of Ontario.

But Saunders is doubtful that 150 countries with 800 points of agreement can reach any kind of meaningful solution this summer in Geneva. "Ultimately, you can keep postponing and postponing (talks)," he said. "There is no way of knowing if there will be an agreement and what that will be."

If there is an agreement, based on what most countries want, "there is every likelihood of increasing access and a reduction of tariffs" that will negatively affect dairy farmers, he said.

In a recent presentation, Saunders outlined the best-case and worst-case WTO scenario for dairy farmers.

Best case: There will be "adequate coverage for supply managed products in the sensitive products category, recognizing that even within sensitive products, there could be TRQ (Within Quota Access) expansion."

Worst case: "Some supply managed products (will be) subject to general tariff reduction formula." That means "larger tariff cuts."