KEMPTVILLE — "Did anyone here sell corn at $7.50 (per bushel)?" asked the risk management consultant with the microphone standing in front of his PowerPoint presentation. No one said a word. One crop farmer near the front of the gymnasium piped up that he sold corn when it hit $7.

Moe Agostino, Farms.com consultant, was impressed. On his farm, where net profit was $250,000, he didn’t sell when prices broke record territory because he had already locked in his price. His goal is to sell in the top 25 % price range each year. He looks to oil tycoon Boon Pickens to support his philosophy: "An idiot with a plan will always beat a genius with no plan."

Speaking on the economic recession and grain markets to a crowd of about 200 farmers at Kemptville campus of the University of Guelph last month, Agostino surprised the crowd by noting that when corn prices hit record highs last summer, "70 per cent or more of American farmers didn’t do anything," he said. The reason: people were talking about corn hitting $10 per bushel. "They got greedy."

Biofuels caused the rush for corn, consuming 3.6 billion bushels, while not one bushel was used for ethanol in 1985.

He calmed some fears, noting that despite the mainstream media’s doom and gloom headlines, in a downturn only 10 % of the people have serious economic troubles. "It’s a psychological mind game the media plays with us," he joked. He argues that the current stock market meltdown is driven more by fear than anything else.

While Agostino couldn’t project a price for corn this year, he argues that farming is by and large immune from recession. Add to the mix that there is a global food shortage and new shortages of the big three. Argentina has lost half of its wheat and corn crop and soybeans are down 20 per cent. Australia will suffer heavily due to fire and floods and China is experiencing its worst drought in 50 years. At the same time the United States is committed to freeing itself from Middle East oil dependence within 10 years. So what should a farmer expect? "Lots of volatility. We’re going to have a wild ride this year."

Speaking on Feb. 19, he predicted that crop shortages in other countries will set the stage for higher commodity prices in the next 30 to 60 days.

He dispelled fears of the ethanol industry, noting 35 to 45 new ethanol plant projects in the United States are on hold but there are 172 operating and 14 in Canada. "Is it cheaper for them to shut down? No." Their success is tied to the price of oil, which reached $140 per barrel last year and last month was only about $38 per barrel. "The oil price will come back. It’s the swing price that analysts say will head back to $80 to $106 in 2009. Seasonal crude oil prices tend to bottom around the end of January."

Energy prices are the biggest factor in long term expansion of corn-based ethanol and energy prices are also the "biggest swing factor" in corn price, he said.

Agostino took a few swipes at President Obama’s $1-trillion and counting stimulus plan, which is short on details and caused more stock market declines. But in the plan there is $31 billion in tax credits for biofuels, he said. "Biofuels are here to stay," he said. "The food industry is recession proof."

While bad news is good news for corn prices, many analysts are also saying price will be affected by a switch of 5 million acres in the United States this year from growing corn to growing soybeans.

"That will lower your soybean prices," he said, adding that it gives farmers only a temporary window to lock in a price for the 2008 crop. "I work with a lot of farmers and they’re going to grow a lot more beans."