KEMPTVILLE — Eastern Ontario and east central Ontario farmers were showing signs in late February of planting more soybeans and less corn.

"I think you’re going to see a bulge on the soybean side," said North Gower crop farmer Dwight Foster. "It’s all about economics."

Foster, one of three farmers interviewed for this article, watches the Chicago Board of Trade prices every day and says soybeans are a more favourable crop unless the price of corn goes up and fertilizer prices come down.

"The financials to grow a crop of corn is pretty high, almost $200 an acre for fertilizer," he said. "But corn’s not worth $200 an acre today."

Speaking on Feb. 25 on his cell phone while on the road to Oklahoma City, Foster offered that financing 2,000 acres of corn can be overwhelming for some farmers while planting soybeans are one-third or less in cost.

Compounding problems, "the price of fertilizer in eastern Ontario is the worst," he added. "It’s a lot less expensive in western Ontario."

At Lindsay, crop farmer Joe Hickson says there is a real possibility of farmers shifting from corn to soybeans. "About 35 per cent to 40 per cent of the acres have yet to be committed," he said. "That will float between barley, corn – if the fertilizer price backs off a bit – and soybeans."

The surprise crop is barley, he said, noting that at contract prices of $180 to $200 per tonne "it pencils out nicely."

Ontario farmers grow about 5 million acres of crops each year, about 1.8 million of those acres were in corn last year. If there is a 10 per cent shift away from corn that’s 180,000 acres taken out of corn production, Hickson said.

Moose Creek crop farmer Alain Leduc says it would not surprise him if 10 per cent of last year’s corn acreage shifted to beans. "I think in general there will be a little bit of a switch to soybeans. The premium on IP beans is the highest they’ve ever been."

Leduc, who harvested 1,200 acres of corn last year, agrees that a farmer can’t pencil a profit on corn acres based on February prices for fertilizer.

Many farmers are angry with the high cost and both retailers and farmers now are waiting for the other to make the first move, Leduc said.

Retail prices for phosphorous have more than doubled over the last year, while both nitrogen and potash have increased by more than 50 per cent, he said. Many retailers are stuck with high-priced fertilizer while many farmers are waiting for a price drop before they buy.

"The biggest animal in all of this is still Mother Nature," Leduc said, noting the crop disaster in Argentina. "We could be in for another wild ride for the price (of corn)."