Plant wheat. It’s easy to sell, in demand, and with the price over $200 per tonne a farmer can make a good profit, says Colin Reesor.

Past editor of the Grain Newsletter and former Ministry of Agriculture economist, Reesor is now a crop farmer near Walkerton. He says he’s planting 50 acres of winter wheat, more than in past times, a trend reflected by farmers in his region.

"I’m going to forward sell," he says. "Farmers this year have made a lot of money on wheat." The average yield in his area is between 2.5 to 3 tonnes per acre.

The world shortage of grain is nowhere in sight, he says, with major producers like Australia and Argentina suffering from drought.

Corn is still a good bet, he says, but expects the price to dip just after harvest and then recover. The United States, with a bumper crop, will have a problem with storage this harvest. When buyers see the temporary surplus, they’ll drop the price, Reesor said.

He argues that the drop in corn prices will be temporary; the U.S. will not be able to sustain this year’s growth of corn. And next planting season, wheat will steal acres from both corn and soybeans.

The recent drop in the price of corn had nothing to do with supply and demand, he says. "There are two types of people in the marketplace: The commercial buyers and the people with hedge funds." When world markets recently took a hit, precipitated by the U.S. mortgage meltdown, hedge fund managers had to meet their margins and sold off commodities like corn.

The number crunchers realize the numbers look good and markets and prices are going to get better. He’s skeptical about the current U.S. corn yield, quoting the axiom: Good crops disappoint; poor crops surprise.

He hopes that’s true. On his own farm and the surrounding area, the long endured dryness has shortened the kernels in the cobs and he fears soybeans will also be smaller.

But price looks good. With continued pressure from wheat buyers and ethanol plants, grain will continue in short supply. "All in all, I’m optimistic," he says. "World inventories are not increasing."