USDA spokesperson in Washington, Julie Quick, on Oct. 3, said the U.S. government still needs 30 to 90 days after the announcement for comment period, followed by a final ruling and "there’s no time frame on that," she said. "Every rule is different."

When asked if the ruling is being "fast-tracked", she told Farmers Forum, "it’s a priority."

Her comments are consistent with a U.S. official who told Farmers Forum not to expect an open border for live cattle under 30 months until the first quarter of 2004.

The official made it clear, however, that cull cows and replacement cattle are last on the list of priorities with the United States Department of Agriculture and aren’t even being considered at this time.

Their comments are much less optimistic than those from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, which made a request in June and hoped to see a more open border in November. The border is now open for muscle cuts, which affects about 30 per cent of Canada’s beef exports.

Said Ron Wooddisse, president of the Ontario Cattlemen’s Association: "The border could be opened by the middle of November if this is fast-tracked or if it’s business as usual, in mid-February."

For older cattle, the wait could be excruciatingly long. Farmers may have to wait two to four years for the border to open for cattle over 30 months, which includes replacement cattle and cull cows, Wooddisse said. These are higher risk animals and Canada has not yet asked the United States to open the border for them, he said.

Farmers will likely have to send their replacement and cull cows to market here in Canada. "This will drive down the price of older cattle for some time," he noted.

Typically, a dairy farmer might sell 15 replacement cows per year at about $700 to $800 each. That farmer is now selling them at $200 per cow, he said. That could mean an $8,000 loss or more for many dairy farmers.