Life is an uncertainty, like growing crops or disaster
help from a government’s treasury. A case in point is the $4.3 billion
supposedly on the way from Ottawa. It seems payments depend on President
George Bush’s recent proposal to slash all worldwide farm subsidies by
$150 billion.
Further, average global farm tariffs would be slashed
to 15 per cent from today’s 62 per cent. All this may sound great to
urban taxpayers but the impact on our farmers is blithely overlooked. Most
incomes already are perilously low and the loss of $2.7 billion likely
would push thousands of families over the brink. It’s almost certain the
EC (European Community) will pay lip service to the idea but continue
helping its smaller farmers with more than $70 billion a year.
Then there are the U.S. mid-term elections in November.
President Bush seeks to regain control of the Senate, an objective
dependent on the major farm states. So cutting any part of Washington’s
controversial subsidy program would court electoral disaster. American
farm families need help almost as much as ours.
Believe it or not, Ottawa welcomes the move. Senior
bureaucrat Vern Greenshields told the media: "It’s a sign of
leadership and we’re happy to see it."
Really? If his comment is based on reality, supporting
evidence is as scarce as hen’s teeth. As usual, the Europeans have done
their homework and feel the U.S. plan is self-serving and hammers most
other programs. EU spokesman Irishman Gerry Kiely says "[It] is
designed in such a way that it is others who will have to make any
sacrifice."
He explains that for his farmers the proposal is
"unrealistic." While the Europeans would surrender more than $50
billion a year, Americans lose only $13 billion from $270 billion promised
them over the next 10 years. Moreover, Japan probably will mount strong
opposition since its farmers could suffer a similar shortfall of $50
billion.
The EU’s rationale for long-term agricultural
subsidies rests on two pillars: an advanced high-cost society cannot be
expected to compete with Third World dollar-a-day producers, and smaller
European enterprises are an integral part of an efficient economy. A
diversified industrial growth, with plants located in most small cities
and towns, relies on farm families for supplying the general work force.
Keeping Europe’s agriculture healthy with various
farm programs is beneficial to urban business. This explains why there is
little strong opposition to government rural programs, particularly when
recent trends place greater accent on popular environmental and animal
care projects such as hotel-style barns. So forgoing the proposed $50
billion a year seems a non-starter.
It looks as if President Bush is playing games as well as polishing his
free trade image. This means our farmers must keep a sharp eye on Ottawa’s
gurus, otherwise the gang in Ottawa could slip from its $4.3 billion
pledge and spend the money on leadership bribes.