Despite the pessimism, the Ontario Cattlemen’s Association hopes that continued lobbying through briefings to the U.S. Congress and Senate, as well as direct lobbying of American supporters and communication between Prime Minister Paul Martin and President George Bush, will alter the present course of events.

Gregg Doud, chief economist for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, a large U.S. organization, representing about 250,000 members and affiliates, said that even if the U.S. Department of Agriculture announces tomorrow that it will open the border to live Canadian cattle, American law would require a 60-day delay for a congressional review because the amount of trade involved is more than $100 million.

But that still wouldn’t open the border by October, Doud said, because the Montana cattle association, R-CALF, is expected seek a second court injunction, based on technicalities, to shut the border to Canadian cattle.

"What we anticipate is, what is widely held in most (farm industry) circles, that another injunction will be filed by R-CALF," said Doud, from his Washington office, one block from the White House. "If this ends up in the court system in the U.S. then it takes on its own timeline. A judge in Montana will decide. I don’t know if you would have any influence. That’s the point I’m trying to make."

He added that R-CALF is determined to keep Canadian beef out of the United States. R-CALF wants the American government to endorse country of origin labelling, assuming that consumers will pass over steaks and other meats with a foreign label, including those from Canada.

Other observers point to the American presidential election influencing the border situation. Doud disagrees. "This border would be open right now if it had not been for the injunction," he said.

"This (border issue) is something that is quite unpredictable," said Steve Larson, managing editor at Hoard’s Dairyman. "If I were to bet, slaughter cattle won’t be crossing the border before the end of the year."

And if that’s the case, cull cows and dairy replacement heifers will likely wait even longer, he said. Larson pins his conclusion on current U.S. negotiations with trading partners and the November presidential election. An open border to Canadian cattle won’t happen soon because the United States is working at re-opening beef markets abroad, he said, adding that when the border does open, it will only open gradually. "Our feeling is that it (open border) won’t happen soon. We have a presidential election coming up and no one wants to rock that boat."

He added that anyone outside the United States Department of Agriculture is merely speculating on when the U.S. will open its border to live Canadian cattle because "anyone in the department will be very tight lipped about it."

Since late February, the USDA has been reviewing more than 1,000 comments from interest groups on whether or not to open the U.S. border to slaughter cattle. In a telephone interview with Farmers Forum on July 23, USDA spokesperson Julie Quick replied without hesitation when asked about the Department of Agriculture’s next move. "We don’t have a time line on reviewing those comments before making a final rule," she said.

When asked if there is any indication as to when a ruling would be made, her reply was blunt and immediate: "No."

When pressed, she added: "It’s not the business of government to speculate."

Jan Lyons, president of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, also feared that movement on the U.S. border would be held up until after the November election.

"We do understand and feel deeply for the frustration felt by the Canadian cattlemen," she told Farmers Forum. "The NCBA is committed to opening the border based on science and not on arbritary emotions. We do support an orderly re-opening of the border. As far as timelines I don’t have that at my fingertips."

The word buzzing in Washington, according to 20-year agriculture writer for the Inside Washington newsletter, Jim Wiesemeyer, is the U.S. border won’t open any wider until after the presidential election. As it stands, the only Canadian meat getting across the U.S. border now is boneless boxed beef from cattle under 30 months.