The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that 48,000 dairy cows will enter the U.S. the first year the border opens to breeding stock and depress the U.S. price by a mere 1 %. Meantime, the supply in Ontario has tightened and local dairymen will need to retain their heifers to meet increased consumer demand at home.

Therefore, the opening of the border Nov. 19 won’t mean a lot in the short term. Ontario quota incentives were increased the beginning of May, allowing farmers to produce more milk than anticipated over the slower months. In addition, farmers in August were granted an additional 1% of quota.

The good news for Ontario farmers doesn’t end there. In October, they have been granted another 1% increase, says Lloyd Wicks, Dairy Farmers of Ontario board member.

"Dairymen have cranked up production and there are not a lot of heifers to spare," says Ron Ashmore, a Kawartha Lakes dairy farmer. Good quality dairy heifers are selling between $1,500 and $2,000, about the same as they were when the United States closed its borders in May 2003.

"When the dollar reached par (September 2007), there was no advantage to sell to the U.S.," Wicks said. Consumer sales are up, and the "Dairy industry looks promising now".

What’s more, the heifer-raising industry was destroyed after borders were closed. "There was no support to keep that business alive," he said. As a consequence, the infrastructure is all gone.

However, the opening of the border in November will give the seller an alternative buyer, putting even more pressure on the Ontario supply.